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Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
2/10/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 25Constant Vanden Stock

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Anderlecht46%
×Draw24%
Zulte Waregem30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.69
Zulte Waregem
1.32

Anderlecht creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.58
Zulte Waregem
1.27

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.37
Zulte Waregem
1.79

finishing

Anderlecht+0.12scores more
Zulte Waregem+0.20scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Zulte Waregem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
70%
Anderlecht or Zulte Waregem
76%
Draw or Zulte Waregem
54%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
24%
Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
82%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
50%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
24%
Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
73%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
38%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
61%
Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.58 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zulte Waregem attack 1.27 + Anderlecht defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Anderlecht scores more
46%
level
24%
Zulte Waregem scores more
30%

Anderlecht at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Antonio Milić← Ivan Obradović
63'
Davy de Fauw
64'
Ivan Santini← Landry Dimata
71'
Yannick Bolasie
80'
Alexis Saelemaekers← Yari Verschaeren
84'
Chris Bedia← Idrissa Sylla
90'
Chris Bedia

Statistics

AnderlechtZulte
Overview
6Corners6
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem

Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Constant Vanden Stock in Brussels.