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Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
1/28/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 22Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Anderlecht36%
×Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.38
Union St. Gilloise
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
Union St. Gilloise
1.53

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
Union St. Gilloise
1.15

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
Union St. Gilloise-0.25scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Union St. Gilloise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
61%
Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise
75%
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
64%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
16%
Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
75%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
40%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
16%
Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
76%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
42%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
48%
Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + Union St. Gilloise defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.53 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anderlecht scores more
36%
level
25%
Union St. Gilloise scores more
39%

Union St. Gilloise at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise

Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.