Anderlecht 2–2 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Standard Liege

I. Slimani 38', 34' (pen)

K. Sardella 68' (OG)

N. Ohio 14'

2/26/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 27Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Anderlecht45%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Anderlecht

1.54

Standard Liege

1.21

Anderlecht creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 18 away

1.58

creates per match

1.05

1.37

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.58

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.37

Standard Liege

1.49

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.12scores more

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

70%

Anderlecht or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

55%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

23%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

79%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

45%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

20%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

70%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

34%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

60%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.58 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Anderlecht defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anderlecht scores more

45%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

30%

Anderlecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

I. Slimani

Anderlecht · F

7.9

Match Events

14'

N. Ohio

34'

I. SlimaniPenalty

38'

I. Slimani↳ F. Amuzu

44'

Filippo Melegoni

46'

L. Noubi← F. Melegoni

55'

Islam Slimani

65'

Francis Amuzu

65'

Noah Ohio

68'

K. SardellaOwn goal

71'

Noah OhioGoal confirmed

73'

R. Emond← N. Ohio

80'

L. Refaelov← A. Diawara

84'

C. Çanak← W. Balikwisha

87'

K. Arnstad← Y. Verschaeren

87'

M. Stroeykens← A. Dreyer

90+5'

O. Davida← P. Zinckernagel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtStandard

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots8

7Corners3

5Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots8

8On Target4

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

558Total Passes379

484Accurate Passes283

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides4

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Standard Liege

Anderlecht and Standard Liege drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 26, 2023.

Goals: N. Ohio (14'), I. Slimani (34' pen, 38'), K. Sardella (68' o.g.).

Anderlecht controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.

Anderlecht vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Standard Liege