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Anderlecht vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
1/16/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 22Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Anderlecht46%
×Draw25%
Standard Liege29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.55
Standard Liege
1.19

Anderlecht creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
Standard Liege
1.04

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
Standard Liege
1.49

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
Standard Liege-0.10scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
71%
Anderlecht or Standard Liege
75%
Draw or Standard Liege
54%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
23%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
46%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
20%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
70%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
33%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
61%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Standard Liege attack 1.04 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Anderlecht scores more
46%
level
25%
Standard Liege scores more
29%

Anderlecht at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Anderlecht 1–1 Standard Liege

Anderlecht and Standard Liege drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.