Anderlecht 2–1 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Standard Liege

Ivan Santini 57'

Yari Verschaeren 37'

Mehdi Carcela-González 49'

5/5/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 7Constant Vanden Stock

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Anderlecht46%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Anderlecht

1.56

Standard Liege

1.19

Anderlecht creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.05

1.32

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

Standard Liege

1.49

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

71%

Anderlecht or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

54%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

23%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

79%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

46%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

21%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

70%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

33%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

61%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Anderlecht scores more

46%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

29%

Anderlecht at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Sebastiaan Bornauw

27'

Ivan Santini

31'

Luis Pedro Cavanda

37'

Yari Verschaeren↳ Yannick Bolasie

41'

Maxime Lestienne

49'

Mehdi Carcela-González↳ Luis Pedro Cavanda

55'

Konstantinos Laifis

57'

Ivan Santini↳ Adrien Trebel

64'

William Balikwisha← Maxime Lestienne

64'

Sebastien Pocognoli← Konstantinos Laifis

74'

Samuel Bastien← Alen Halilović

75'

Kara Mbodji

78'

Alexis Saelemaekers← Elias Cobbaut

82'

Francis Amuzu← Ivan Santini

90'

Renaud Emond

90'

Pieter Gerkens← Yari Verschaeren

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AnderlechtStandard

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots9

2Corners7

15Fouls21

Shots

5Total Shots9

4On Target6

1Off Target3

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards–

Jupiler Pro League: Anderlecht 2–1 Standard Liege

Anderlecht beat Standard Liege 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on May 5, 2019.

Goals: Yari Verschaeren (37'), Mehdi Carcela-González (49'), Ivan Santini (57').

Standard Liege controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 5.

The match was played at Constant Vanden Stock in Brussels.

Anderlecht vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Anderlecht 2–1 Standard Liege