Anderlecht 4–1 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

St. Truiden

L. Vázquez 75' (pen)

K. Dolberg 55'

M. Stroeykens 52'

T. Hazard 49'

J. Steuckers 8'

2/18/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 26Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Anderlecht41%

×Draw25%

St. Truiden35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.39

Anderlecht

1.53

St. Truiden

1.39

Anderlecht creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.66

creates per match

1.44

1.34

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.66

St. Truiden

1.44

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.34

St. Truiden

1.41

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Anderlecht+0.10scores more

St. Truiden-0.02on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

65%

Anderlecht or St. Truiden

75%

Draw or St. Truiden

59%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

20%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

78%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

45%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

20%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

75%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

40%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

54%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.34 · 25 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.66 + St. Truiden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

St. Truiden attack 1.44 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Anderlecht scores more

41%

level

25%

St. Truiden scores more

35%

Anderlecht at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Hazard

Anderlecht · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

J. Steuckers

49'

T. Hazard↳ Y. Verschaeren

52'

M. Stroeykens↳ Y. Verschaeren

55'

K. Dolberg↳ A. Dreyer

63'

L. Augustinsson← K. Arnstad

63'

K. Sardella← L. Patris

69'

R. Ito← J. Fujita

72'

T. Leoni← M. Rits

72'

L. Vázquez← K. Dolberg

73'

Rein Van Helden

75'

A. Bertaccini← R. Vanwesemael

75'

L. VázquezPenalty

76'

F. Kaya← K. Zahiroleslam

76'

W. Janssens← A. Koïta

82'

A. Colassin← T. Hazard

83'

Mario Stroeykens

90+2'

O. Dumont← M. Delorge-Knieper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtSt.

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots12

3.12Expected Goals (xG)1.37

2Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots12

8On Target4

4Off Target5

5Blocked3

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

636Total Passes455

571Accurate Passes390

90%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0