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Anderlecht vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
9/30/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 9Constant Vanden Stock

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Anderlecht40%
×Draw25%
St. Truiden35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.51
St. Truiden
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.64
St. Truiden
1.46

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.32
St. Truiden
1.39

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par
St. Truiden+0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
65%
Anderlecht or St. Truiden
75%
Draw or St. Truiden
60%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
20%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
78%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
44%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
19%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
75%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
40%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
54%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.39 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + St. Truiden defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

St. Truiden attack 1.46 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anderlecht scores more
40%
level
25%
St. Truiden scores more
35%

Anderlecht at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Christian Ceballos
61'
Sven Kums
61'
Landry Dimata← Pieter Gerkens
70'
Evgeny Makarenko← Adrien Trebel
73'
Wataru Endo← Jordan Botaka
82'
Kenny Saief← Francis Amuzu
84'
Jonathan Legear← Yohan Boli
90'
Daichi Kamada← Roman Bezus

Possession

60%Anderlecht

Shots

16Anderlecht

Statistics

AnderlechtSt.
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots2
11Corners0
13Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots2
7On Target0
9Off Target2
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden

Anderlecht and St. Truiden drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 30, 2018.

Anderlecht controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 2.

The match was played at Constant Vanden Stock in Brussels.