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Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
8/20/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Anderlecht48%
×Draw23%
KVC Westerlo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.81
KVC Westerlo
1.38

Anderlecht creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
KVC Westerlo
1.42

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
KVC Westerlo
2.01

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
KVC Westerlo-0.13scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
71%
Anderlecht or KVC Westerlo
77%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
52%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
26%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
84%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
54%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
27%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
75%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
40%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
62%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.01 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + KVC Westerlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.81

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Anderlecht scores more
48%
level
23%
KVC Westerlo scores more
29%

Anderlecht at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Anderlecht 2–1 KVC Westerlo

Anderlecht beat KVC Westerlo 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.