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Anderlecht vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
10/7/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 10Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Anderlecht50%
×Draw23%
KV Mechelen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.77
KV Mechelen
1.21

Anderlecht creates 46% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
KV Mechelen
1.07

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
KV Mechelen
1.94

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
KV Mechelen+0.43scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
74%
Anderlecht or KV Mechelen
77%
Draw or KV Mechelen
50%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
28%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
83%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
53%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
26%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
70%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
34%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
66%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + KV Mechelen defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

KV Mechelen attack 1.07 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Anderlecht scores more
50%
level
23%
KV Mechelen scores more
26%

Anderlecht at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs KV Mechelen

Anderlecht beat KV Mechelen 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.