Anderlecht 4–1 Kortrijk: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kortrijk

L. Refaelov 75' (pen)

J. Vertonghen 64'

M. Ashimeru 59'

Y. Verschaeren 27'

F. Selemani 61'

9/18/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 9Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Anderlecht53%

×Draw24%

Kortrijk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchKortrijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.07

Anderlecht

1.73

Kortrijk

1.07

Anderlecht creates 62% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 116 away

1.82

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.82

Kortrijk

1.11

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.03

Kortrijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Kortrijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

77%

Anderlecht or Kortrijk

76%

Draw or Kortrijk

47%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

29%

Kortrijk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

82%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

52%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

25%

Kortrijk 1+ goals

66%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

29%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

69%

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.03 · 151 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.82 + Kortrijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kortrijk attack 1.11 + Anderlecht defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Anderlecht scores more

53%

level

24%

Kortrijk scores more

23%

Anderlecht at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Refaelov

Anderlecht · F

8.5

Match Events

18'

J. Duranville← F. Amuzu

27'

Y. Verschaeren↳ A. Murillo

29'

Dorian Dessoleil

53'

Kevin Vandendriessche

58'

H. Keïta← K. Vandendriessche

58'

F. Selemani← B. Messaoudi

59'

M. Ashimeru↳ A. Murillo

61'

F. Selemani

64'

J. Vertonghen↳ L. Refaelov

65'

Kristian Arnstad

66'

F. Avenatti← D. Dessoleil

70'

Lior RefaelovPenalty confirmed

75'

L. RefaelovPenalty

76'

S. Esposito← L. Refaelov

76'

M. Kana← K. Arnstad

77'

D. Mbayo← S. Lončar

77'

N. Mehssatou← O. Sych

82'

K. Sardella← Z. Debast

82'

H. Delcroix← Fábio Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtKortrijk

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots8

9Corners6

17Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target3

2Off Target2

5Blocked3

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

455Total Passes428

371Accurate Passes335

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1