Anderlecht 2–1 Genk: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Genk

K. Dolberg 70'

Y. Verschaeren 44'

T. Arokodare 75'

5/11/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 8Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Anderlecht41%

×Draw24%

Genk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Anderlecht

1.56

Genk

1.40

Anderlecht creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.58

creates per match

1.42

1.37

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.58

Genk

1.42

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.37

Genk

1.54

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.12scores more

Genk+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

66%

Anderlecht or Genk

76%

Draw or Genk

59%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

20%

Genk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

79%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

46%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

21%

Genk 1+ goals

75%

Genk 2+ goals

41%

Genk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

55%

Genk (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Genk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.58 + Genk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Genk attack 1.42 + Anderlecht defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Anderlecht scores more

41%

level

24%

Genk scores more

34%

Anderlecht at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Verschaeren

Anderlecht · M

7.7

Match Events

42'

Thomas Delaney

44'

Y. Verschaeren↳ M. Stroeykens

45+2'

Mujaid Sadick

46'

F. Amuzu← Y. Verschaeren

55'

Bilal El Khannouss

68'

A. Fadera← Mujaid Sadick

68'

C. Bonsu Baah← A. Zeqiri

70'

K. Dolberg

73'

T. Leoni← M. Stroeykens

75'

T. Arokodare↳ Z. El Ouahdi

80'

L. Vázquez← K. Dolberg

86'

A. Ait El Hadj← P. Hrošovský

90+2'

N. Angulo← A. Dreyer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtGenk

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots19

1.17Expected Goals (xG)1.67

4Corners3

5Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots19

4On Target3

9Off Target7

3Blocked9

9Inside Box11

7Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

412Total Passes476

336Accurate Passes419

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2