Anderlecht 1–2 Genk: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Genk

L. Nmecha 31'

C. Dessers 86'

P. Onuachu 16'

5/15/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 4Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Anderlecht43%

×Draw24%

Genk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.37

Anderlecht

1.59

Genk

1.37

Anderlecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

1.64

creates per match

1.42

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

Genk

1.42

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

Genk

1.54

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

Genk+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

67%

Anderlecht or Genk

76%

Draw or Genk

57%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

21%

Genk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

80%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

47%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

21%

Genk 1+ goals

75%

Genk 2+ goals

40%

Genk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

56%

Genk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Genk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Genk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Genk attack 1.42 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anderlecht scores more

43%

level

24%

Genk scores more

33%

Anderlecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

P. Onuachu

Genk · F

8.0

Match Events

16'

P. Onuachu

27'

E. Cobbaut← K. Sardella

31'

L. Nmecha

50'

Patrik Hrošovský

63'

F. Amuzu← Y. Verschaeren

64'

J. Bruun Larsen← M. Ashimeru

69'

J. Lucumí← C. Cuesta

73'

Michael Murillo

76'

C. Dessers← P. Onuachu

81'

L. Oyen← K. Thorstvedt

82'

A. Trebel← A. Lokonga

86'

C. Dessers↳ T. Bongonda

90'

Theo Bongonda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtGenk

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots17

1Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target5

3Off Target8

3Blocked4

6Inside Box11

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

570Total Passes491

468Accurate Passes421

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4