Anderlecht 3–3 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Club Brugge KV

J. Bruun Larsen 90+4'

L. Nmecha 65', 45+2' (pen)

N. Lang 57'

H. Vanaken 54', 13'

5/20/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 5Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Anderlecht34%

×Draw24%

Club Brugge KV42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.59

Anderlecht

1.40

Club Brugge KV

1.59

Club Brugge KV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.64

creates per match

1.86

1.32

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

Club Brugge KV

1.86

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

Club Brugge KV

1.15

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

58%

Anderlecht or Club Brugge KV

76%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

66%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

15%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

75%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

41%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

17%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

80%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

47%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

45%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Anderlecht scores more

34%

level

24%

Club Brugge KV scores more

42%

Club Brugge KV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Hans Vanaken

Club Brugge KV · M

8.6

Match Events

13'

H. Vanaken↳ C. de Ketelaere

45+2'

L. NmechaPenalty

46'

Y. Verschaeren← J. Bruun Larsen

46'

M. Ashimeru← F. Amuzu

54'

H. Vanaken↳ C. de Ketelaere

57'

65'

70'

73'

73'

76'

85'

B. Mykhaylichenko← P. Mukairu

86'

N. Lang← D. Okereke

87'

A. Lokonga

89'

C. de Ketelaere← B. Dost

90+3'

E. Balanta← M. Mitrovic

90+4'

J. Bruun Larsen↳ M. Murillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtClub

Overview

61%Possession39%

5Total Shots13

2Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots13

3On Target5

2Off Target5

0Blocked3

4Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

656Total Passes415

567Accurate Passes325

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides5