Anderlecht 2–3 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Club Brugge KV

Adrien Trebel 90'

Pieter Gerkens 64'

Arnaut Groeneveld 87'

Emmanuel Dennis 32'

Wesley 5'

4/4/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 2Constant Vanden Stock

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Anderlecht34%

×Draw24%

Club Brugge KV42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.60

Anderlecht

1.40

Club Brugge KV

1.60

Club Brugge KV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

1.65

creates per match

1.86

1.34

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.65

Club Brugge KV

1.86

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.34

Club Brugge KV

1.15

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.06on par

Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

58%

Anderlecht or Club Brugge KV

76%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

66%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

15%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

75%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

41%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

17%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

80%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

47%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

44%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 31 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.65 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Anderlecht scores more

34%

level

24%

Club Brugge KV scores more

42%

Club Brugge KV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Wesley↳ Siebe Schrijvers

27'

Ivan Obradović

32'

Emmanuel Dennis↳ Hans Vanaken

39'

Emmanuel Dennis

61'

Yannick Bolasie

64'

Pieter Gerkens↳ Yannick Bolasie

68'

Adrien Trebel

72'

Bubacarr Sanneh← Dennis Appiah

72'

Sofyan Amrabat← Siebe Schrijvers

74'

Arnaut Groeneveld← Emmanuel Dennis

78'

Brandon Mechele

81'

Ivan Santini← Pieter Gerkens

85'

Kara Mbodji

87'

Arnaut Groeneveld↳ Wesley

89'

Dion Cools← Krépin Diatta

90'

Adrien Trebel

90'

Andy Najar← Ivan Obradović

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AnderlechtClub

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots9

6Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots9

6On Target8

4Off Target1

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0