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Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
12/27/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Anderlecht41%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.56
Cercle Brugge
1.42

Anderlecht creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.61
Cercle Brugge
1.50

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
Cercle Brugge
1.50

finishing

Anderlecht+0.09on par
Cercle Brugge-0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
65%
Anderlecht or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
59%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
20%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
46%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
21%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
76%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
41%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
54%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 23 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.61 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cercle Brugge attack 1.50 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Anderlecht scores more
41%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
35%

Anderlecht at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge

Anderlecht beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.