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Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
M. Murillo 68'
L. Nmecha 36' (pen)
9/13/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 5Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Anderlecht42%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.58
Cercle Brugge
1.40

Anderlecht creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.65
Cercle Brugge
1.46

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.34
Cercle Brugge
1.52

finishing

Anderlecht+0.06on par
Cercle Brugge-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
66%
Anderlecht or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
58%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
21%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
47%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
21%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
75%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
41%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
55%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 31 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.52 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.65 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cercle Brugge attack 1.46 + Anderlecht defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Anderlecht scores more
42%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
34%

Anderlecht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
David Bates
36'
L. NmechaPenalty
37'
Johanna Ochieng Omolo
43'
Ognjen Vranješ
59'
Robbe Decostere
59'
F. Kanoute← J. Omolo
67'
D. Velkovski← A. Corryn
67'
K. Hazard← A. Musaba
68'
M. Murillo
75'
Y. Verschaeren← Z. Bakkali
81'
M. Bundu← J. Doku
83'
Franck Kanouté
87'
A. El Hadj← L. Nmecha

Possession

60%Anderlecht

Shots

10Anderlecht

Statistics

AnderlechtCercle
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots7
7Corners3
11Fouls20
Shots
10Total Shots7
5On Target1
5Off Target6
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls20
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Cercle Brugge

Anderlecht beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 13, 2020.

Goals: L. Nmecha (36' pen), M. Murillo (68').

Anderlecht controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.