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Anderlecht vs AS Eupen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
A. Lokonga 71'
J. Ngoy 90'
9/27/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 7Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Anderlecht58%
×Draw22%
AS Eupen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.89
AS Eupen
0.99

Anderlecht creates 91% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 99 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.81
AS Eupen
0.96

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.02
AS Eupen
1.97

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
81%
Anderlecht or AS Eupen
78%
Draw or AS Eupen
42%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
34%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
85%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
56%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
29%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
63%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
26%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
75%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.02 · 150 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.81 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Anderlecht defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Anderlecht scores more
58%
level
22%
AS Eupen scores more
19%

Anderlecht at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Jeremy Doku
41'
M. Koch← B. Poulain
58'
Adriano
65'
K. N’Dri← S. Prevljak
66'
L. Dimata← M. Kana
71'
A. Lokonga↳ J. Doku
74'
F. Amuzu← M. Bundu
77'
Víctor Vázquez← J. Cools
81'
Stef Peeters
82'
A. El Hadj← J. Doku
89'
Menno Koch
90'
Anouar Ait El Hadj
90'
Víctor Vázquez
90'
J. Ngoy

Possession

59%Anderlecht

Shots

4Anderlecht

Statistics

AnderlechtAS
Overview
59%Possession41%
4Total Shots7
9Corners5
12Fouls20
Shots
4Total Shots7
3On Target5
1Off Target2
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls20
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs AS Eupen

Anderlecht and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 27, 2020.

Goals: A. Lokonga (71'), J. Ngoy (90').

Anderlecht controlled possession (59%) and registered 4 shots to 7.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.