Anderlecht 1–0 Antwerp: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Antwerp

K. Sardella 52'

3/30/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 1Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Anderlecht44%

×Draw24%

Antwerp32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Anderlecht

1.60

Antwerp

1.32

Anderlecht creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

Antwerp

1.32

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

Antwerp

1.56

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

Antwerp-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Antwerp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

68%

Anderlecht or Antwerp

76%

Draw or Antwerp

56%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

22%

Antwerp wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

80%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

47%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

22%

Antwerp 1+ goals

73%

Antwerp 2+ goals

38%

Antwerp 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

58%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Antwerp defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Antwerp attack 1.32 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anderlecht scores more

44%

level

24%

Antwerp scores more

32%

Anderlecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

54

K. Sardella

Anderlecht · D

8.2

Match Events

19'

Vincent Janssen

38'

Jacob Ondrejka

42'

Owen WijndalCard upgrade

43'

Owen Wijndal

45'

R. De Laet← V. Janssen

46'

M. Balikwisha← J. Ondrejka

46'

S. Coulibaly← C. Ejuke

52'

K. Sardella↳ M. Stroeykens

74'

Thorgan Hazard

74'

T. Delaney← M. Rits

75'

F. Amuzu← M. Stroeykens

78'

Thomas Delaney

79'

Jürgen Ekkelenkamp

81'

L. Vázquez← K. Dolberg

81'

V. Udoh← G. Ilenikhena

81'

G. Kerk← J. Ekkelenkamp

87'

Francis AmuzuPenalty cancelled

90+4'

Toby Alderweireld

90+3'

M. Ashimeru← T. Hazard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtAntwerp

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots8

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.71

4Corners3

8Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots8

8On Target2

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

534Total Passes413

457Accurate Passes335

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3