Anderlecht 2–2 Antwerp: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Antwerp

M. Miazga 90+6'

Y. Verschaeren 57'

D. Mbokani 84' (pen), 49'

5/8/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 2Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Anderlecht44%

×Draw24%

Antwerp32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Anderlecht

1.60

Antwerp

1.32

Anderlecht creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.64

Antwerp

1.32

allows per match

Anderlecht

1.32

Antwerp

1.56

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Anderlecht+0.05on par

Antwerp-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Antwerp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

68%

Anderlecht or Antwerp

76%

Draw or Antwerp

56%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

22%

Antwerp wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

80%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

47%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

22%

Antwerp 1+ goals

73%

Antwerp 2+ goals

38%

Antwerp 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

58%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.64 + Antwerp defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Antwerp attack 1.32 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anderlecht scores more

44%

level

24%

Antwerp scores more

32%

Anderlecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

D. Mbokani

Antwerp · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

10'

40'

46'

49'

57'

Y. Verschaeren↳ J. Bruun Larsen

63'

Dieumerci MbokaniGoal cancelled

68'

M. Ashimeru← J. Bruun Larsen

73'

Birger Verstraete

80'

Dieumerci MbokaniGoal cancelled

81'

Martin Hongla

84'

F. Amuzu← A. El Hadj

84'

M. Dauda← Y. Verschaeren

84'

D. MbokaniPenalty

89'

P. Mukairu← B. Mykhaylichenko

90+6'

M. Miazga↳ A. Trebel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnderlechtAntwerp

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots8

3Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target3

7Off Target5

1Blocked0

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

599Total Passes383

512Accurate Passes306

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4