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Anápolis vs Santa Cruz — Serie C 2026

Anápolis
Anápolis
Preview
20:00
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz
8/29/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 19Estadio Jonas Duarte
38%
Anápolis
model favours
38%33%28%

79% of Santa Cruz’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
34%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Anápolis38%
×Draw33%
Santa Cruz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anápolis
0.97
Santa Cruz
0.79

Anápolis creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Anápolis
0.94
Santa Cruz
0.96

allows per match

Anápolis
0.63
Santa Cruz
1.00

finishing

Anápolis+0.00on par
Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 74Over: 2674%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 66Yes: 3466%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anápolis ↓

Santa Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Anápolis or draw
72%
Anápolis or Santa Cruz
67%
Draw or Santa Cruz
62%

Winning margin

Anápolis wins by 2+
14%
Santa Cruz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Anápolis 1+ goals
62%
Anápolis 2+ goals
25%
Anápolis 3+ goals
7%
Santa Cruz 1+ goals
55%
Santa Cruz 2+ goals
19%
Santa Cruz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Anápolis (draw refunded)
57%
Santa Cruz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anápolis at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anápolis attack 0.94 + Santa Cruz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Santa Cruz attack 0.96 + Anápolis defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anápolis scores more
38%
level
33%
Santa Cruz scores more
28%

Anápolis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Anápolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 75% of Anápolis’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Anápolis score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Santa Cruz’s matches
  • 47% of Anápolis’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Anápolis sit 20, Santa Cruz 3 in the table
  • Anápolis and Santa Cruz have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Anápolis
WLLDW
Cruz
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anápolis face Santa Cruz (Serie C)

Serie C returns with Anápolis hosting Santa Cruz. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Anápolis host Santa Cruz at Estadio Jonas Duarte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.