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Anadia vs Sanjoanense — Liga 3 2021

Anadia
Anadia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
3/12/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 22Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Anadia39%
×Draw27%
Sanjoanense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anadia
1.31
Sanjoanense
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 70 away

creates per match

Anadia
1.25
Sanjoanense
1.17

allows per match

Anadia
1.29
Sanjoanense
1.36

finishing

Anadia+0.00on par
Sanjoanense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anadia ↓

Sanjoanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anadia or draw
65%
Anadia or Sanjoanense
73%
Draw or Sanjoanense
61%

Winning margin

Anadia wins by 2+
17%
Sanjoanense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anadia 1+ goals
73%
Anadia 2+ goals
38%
Anadia 3+ goals
14%
Sanjoanense 1+ goals
71%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
35%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Anadia (draw refunded)
53%
Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anadia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Sanjoanense away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anadia attack 1.25 + Sanjoanense defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sanjoanense attack 1.17 + Anadia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anadia scores more
39%
level
27%
Sanjoanense scores more
35%

Anadia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Anadia 2–1 Sanjoanense

Anadia beat Sanjoanense 2-1 in Liga 3 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Sílvio Henriques Cerveira in Anadia.