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Ammerthal vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
13:00
Weiden
Weiden
11/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21
47%
Ammerthal
model favours
47%23%30%

Ammerthal have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ammerthal47%
×Draw23%
Weiden30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.74
Weiden
1.35

Ammerthal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
70%
Ammerthal or Weiden
77%
Draw or Weiden
53%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
25%
Weiden wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
82%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
52%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
25%
Weiden 1+ goals
74%
Weiden 2+ goals
39%
Weiden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
61%
Weiden (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Weiden attack 1.32 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ammerthal scores more
47%
level
23%
Weiden scores more
30%

Ammerthal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ammerthal host Weiden

November 28, 2026: Ammerthal take on Weiden in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.