Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ammerthal vs Neudrossenfeld — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
12:00
Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
10/3/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13
49%
Ammerthal
model favours
49%23%29%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ammerthal49%
×Draw23%
Neudrossenfeld29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.84
Neudrossenfeld
1.36

Ammerthal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Neudrossenfeld
1.35

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Neudrossenfeld
1.96

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Neudrossenfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
71%
Ammerthal or Neudrossenfeld
77%
Draw or Neudrossenfeld
51%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
27%
Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
84%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
55%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
28%
Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
74%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
39%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
63%
Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Neudrossenfeld away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.84

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.35 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ammerthal scores more
49%
level
23%
Neudrossenfeld scores more
29%

Ammerthal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Neudrossenfeld
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ammerthal face Neudrossenfeld (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Ammerthal hosting Neudrossenfeld. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.