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Ammerthal vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
13:00
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
5/2/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31
39%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
37%24%39%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ammerthal37%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Bamberg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.50
Eintracht Bamberg
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
61%
Ammerthal or Eintracht Bamberg
76%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
63%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
18%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
78%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
44%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
19%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
79%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
45%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
49%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ammerthal scores more
37%
level
24%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
39%

Eintracht Bamberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ammerthal host Eintracht Bamberg

May 2, 2027: Ammerthal take on Eintracht Bamberg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.