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Ammerthal vs DJK Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
Preview
17:00
DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
5/14/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33
56%
Ammerthal
model favours
56%21%23%
2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ammerthal56%
×Draw21%
DJK Bamberg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
2.04
DJK Bamberg
1.22

Ammerthal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
DJK Bamberg
1.06

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
DJK Bamberg
2.35

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
DJK Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

DJK Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
77%
Ammerthal or DJK Bamberg
79%
Draw or DJK Bamberg
44%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
33%
DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
87%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
60%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
33%
DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
70%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
34%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
71%
DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

DJK Bamberg away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + DJK Bamberg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

DJK Bamberg attack 1.06 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ammerthal scores more
56%
level
21%
DJK Bamberg scores more
23%

Ammerthal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ammerthal
WLLLW
Bamberg
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ammerthal host DJK Bamberg

May 14, 2027: Ammerthal take on DJK Bamberg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.