America SP vs Itaquá Athletico Clube

America SP

Preview

20:00

Itaquá Athletico Clube

7/26/2026

Paulista Série B · Semi-finals

Big match

36%

America SP

model favours

36%27%36%

America SP are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

America SP36%

×Draw27%

Itaquá Athletico Clube36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America SPExpected goals in this matchItaquá Athletico Clube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

America SP

1.22

Itaquá Athletico Clube

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

2.14

0.29

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

America SP

1.57

Itaquá Athletico Clube

2.14

allows per match

America SP

0.29

Itaquá Athletico Clube

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America SP+0.00on par

Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America SP ↓

Itaquá Athletico Clube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America SP or draw

64%

America SP or Itaquá Athletico Clube

73%

Draw or Itaquá Athletico Clube

64%

Winning margin

America SP wins by 2+

16%

Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

America SP 1+ goals

70%

America SP 2+ goals

34%

America SP 3+ goals

12%

Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals

70%

Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals

34%

Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

America SP (draw refunded)

50%

Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America SP at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America SP attack 1.57 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.14 + America SP defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

America SP scores more

36%

level

27%

Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more

36%

America SP at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "America SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Itaquá Athletico Clube have won 5 in a row
Itaquá Athletico Clube have scored in 12 games running
Itaquá Athletico Clube score first in 75% of matches
47% of America SP’s goals come after the 75th minute
Top-of-the-table clash — America SP 2 vs Itaquá Athletico Clube 1
America SP and Itaquá Athletico Clube have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

SP

WDWDD

Clube

WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff