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América-SP U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

América-SP U20
América-SP U20
Preview
18:00
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
9/3/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
48%
Portuguesa U20
model favours
24%28%48%

América-SP U20 and Portuguesa U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

América-SP U2024%
×Draw28%
Portuguesa U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América-SP U20
0.85
Portuguesa U20
1.32

Portuguesa U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

América-SP U20
0.33
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

América-SP U20
1.33
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

América-SP U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América-SP U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

América-SP U20 or draw
52%
América-SP U20 or Portuguesa U20
72%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
76%

Winning margin

América-SP U20 wins by 2+
8%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

América-SP U20 1+ goals
57%
América-SP U20 2+ goals
21%
América-SP U20 3+ goals
5%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
73%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
38%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

América-SP U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América-SP U20 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América-SP U20 attack 0.33 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + América-SP U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

América-SP U20 scores more
24%
level
28%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
48%

Portuguesa U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWLLL
U20
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

América-SP U20 face Portuguesa U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with América-SP U20 hosting Portuguesa U20. Match starts September 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.