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America de Quito vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
7/7/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 21Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

America de Quito49%
×Draw28%
Manta FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.38
Manta FC
0.88

America de Quito creates 57% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 104 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Manta FC
0.91

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Manta FC
1.27

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
76%
America de Quito or Manta FC
72%
Draw or Manta FC
51%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
23%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
75%
America de Quito 2+ goals
40%
America de Quito 3+ goals
16%
Manta FC 1+ goals
59%
Manta FC 2+ goals
22%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
67%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Manta FC attack 0.91 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

America de Quito scores more
49%
level
28%
Manta FC scores more
24%

America de Quito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Manta FC

America de Quito beat Manta FC 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 7, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).