América de Cali W vs Atlético Nacional W — Liga Femenina 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
América de Cali W48%
Atlético Nacional W26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
América de Cali W creates 47% more chances
Season form · 61 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
América de Cali W ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches
Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.46
Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
América de Cali W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Deportivo Cali W
Santa Fe WAtlético Nacional W
Independiente Medellín W
Internacional PalmiraAmérica de Cali W
Orsomarso W
Millonarios W
La Equidad W
Deportivo Pasto W
Junior W
Real San Andrés W
Once Caldas W
Alianza W
Fortaleza
Atlético Bucaramanga WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
América de Cali W host Atlético Nacional W on Sunday, 15 August 2021 at 19:00. The match is part of the Liga Femenina 2020/2021 season.
Liga Femenina: América de Cali W 1–1 Atlético Nacional W
América de Cali W and Atlético Nacional W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on August 15, 2021.
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.