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América de Cali W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

América de Cali W
América de Cali W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
7/24/2021Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

América de Cali W75%
×Draw17%
Atlético Bucaramanga W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América de Cali W
2.21
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.57

América de Cali W creates 288% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 39 away

creates per match

América de Cali W
1.97
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

América de Cali W
0.66
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

América de Cali W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América de Cali W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

América de Cali W or draw
92%
América de Cali W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
83%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
25%

Winning margin

América de Cali W wins by 2+
50%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

América de Cali W 1+ goals
89%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
65%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
38%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
43%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
11%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

América de Cali W (draw refunded)
90%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.21

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

América de Cali W scores more
75%
level
17%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
8%

América de Cali W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América de Cali W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W

América de Cali W beat Atlético Bucaramanga W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.