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America de Cali vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
5/14/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali46%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.27
Once Caldas
0.86

America de Cali creates 48% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.37
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

America de Cali
0.81
Once Caldas
1.17

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par
Once Caldas+0.25scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
75%
America de Cali or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
21%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
72%
America de Cali 2+ goals
36%
America de Cali 3+ goals
14%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
58%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
21%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
65%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Once Caldas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more
46%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
25%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. NovoaAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · G
8.5

Match Events

3'
Camilo Portilla
45'
Luis Sánchez
49'
J. Velasco← D. Quiñonez
51'
Edwin Velasco
55'
Luis Pérez
58'
Jorge Cardona
60'
E. Mena← C. Barrios
61'
D. Mosquera← L. Sánchez
73'
Y. Valencia← A. García
73'
J. Méndez← S. Cárdenas
73'
J. Araujo← D. Lemos
79'
L. Paz← J. Portilla
79'
L. Mosquera← A. Sarmiento
84'
Franco LeysCard upgrade
86'
Franco Leys
87'
C. Arrieta← A. Ramos
88'
Jeyson Velasco
90+4'
S. Cubides← D. Moreno

Possession

52%America

Shots

8America

Pass accuracy

49%America

Statistics

AmericaOnce
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots13
6Corners2
8Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots13
3On Target6
2Off Target5
3Blocked2
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
407Total Passes380
311Accurate Passes300
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Once Caldas

America de Cali and Once Caldas drew 0-0 in Primera A on May 14, 2023.

America de Cali controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.