America de Cali 1–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Once Caldas

A. Ramos 87'

8/7/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

America de Cali46%

×Draw29%

Once Caldas25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.85

America de Cali

1.25

Once Caldas

0.85

America de Cali creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Once Caldas

0.88

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Once Caldas

1.14

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

75%

America de Cali or Once Caldas

71%

Draw or Once Caldas

54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

21%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

71%

America de Cali 2+ goals

36%

America de Cali 3+ goals

13%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

57%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

21%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

64%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more

46%

level

29%

Once Caldas scores more

25%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Ramos

America de Cali · F

7.9

Match Events

35'

J. Segura← P. Ortiz

37'

Héctor Quiñónes

44'

M. Gómez← D. Hernández

46'

G. Torres← R. Ureña

46'

C. Sierra← H. Quiñónes

46'

J. Cuero← J. Pérez

46'

B. Angulo← H. Otálvaro

53'

Fabrizio Buschiazzo

54'

F. Micolta← M. Carreazo

65'

S. Guzmán← C. Higuita

66'

J. Rodríguez← S. Lucumí

68'

N. Messiniti← M. Pérez

87'

Adrián Ramos

87'

A. Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaOnce

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots5

9Corners1

15Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots5

7On Target1

8Off Target4

6Blocked0

13Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

390Total Passes246

323Accurate Passes158

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2