America de Cali 0–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Once Caldas

8/14/2019

Copa Colombia · 8th FinalsEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

America de Cali55%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.69

America de Cali

1.42

Once Caldas

0.69

America de Cali creates 106% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.43

creates per match

0.67

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Once Caldas

0.67

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Once Caldas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

82%

America de Cali or Once Caldas

73%

Draw or Once Caldas

45%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

27%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

41%

America de Cali 3+ goals

17%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

50%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

15%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

75%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Once Caldas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Once Caldas attack 0.67 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

America de Cali scores more

55%

level

27%

Once Caldas scores more

18%

America de Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Mesa← L. Paz

46'

D. Vergara← J. Mesa

46'

J. Reina← J. Salcedo

64'

R. Carrascal← J. Nieva

79'

E. Mosquera

82'

M. Nazarit← J. Carbonero

87'

E. Serje← H. Suárez

90'

M. Torres

America

Once

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Guimarães

7'▲J. Mesa←▼L. Paz

46'▲D. Vergara←▼J. Mesa

64'▲R. Carrascal←▼J. Nieva

America de Cali substitutes

MesaVergaraCarrascalQuiñónesMedinaQuinteroFranco

Manager: H. Bodhert

46'▲J. Reina←▼J. Salcedo

82'▲M. Nazarit←▼J. Carbonero

87'▲E. Serje←▼H. Suárez

Once Caldas substitutes

ReinaNazaritSerjeLemosRodríguezCarreazoRomán