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America de Cali vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
J. Quiñónes 51'
E. Velasco 84' (pen)
11/4/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 18Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

America de Cali46%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.25
Once Caldas
0.85

America de Cali creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.37
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

America de Cali
0.83
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
75%
America de Cali or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
21%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
71%
America de Cali 2+ goals
36%
America de Cali 3+ goals
13%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
57%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
21%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
64%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more
46%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
25%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. NietoOnce CaldasOnce Caldas · M
7.8

Match Events

23'
Israel Alba
36'
Larry Vásquez
44'
Fernando Aristeguieta
44'
Felipe Correa
46'
G. Carvajal← L. Vásquez
51'
J. Quiñónes
59'
Ricardo Steer
65'
Diego Arias
66'
M. Carreazo← C. Amaya
67'
G. Balanta← J. Quiñónes
69'
Pedro Franco
75'
J. Rodríguez← M. Restrepo
82'
Carlos Bejarano
83'
M. García← J. Carbonero
84'
E. VelascoPenalty
89'
Diego Arias
89'
Juan Rodríguez
89'
Diego Arias

Possession

47%America

Shots

17America

Pass accuracy

50%America

Statistics

AmericaOnce
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots12
4Corners3
21Fouls24
Shots
17Total Shots12
7On Target4
8Off Target6
2Blocked2
10Inside Box4
7Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
333Total Passes380
270Accurate Passes311
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls24
4Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Primera A: America de Cali 1–1 Once Caldas

America de Cali and Once Caldas drew 1-1 in Primera A on November 4, 2018.

Goals: J. Quiñónes (51'), E. Velasco (84' pen).

Once Caldas controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.