America de Cali 4–1 Junior: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Junior

C. Barrios 77'

D. Bocanegra 76'

E. López 45+2'

R. Holgado 35'

M. Pérez 90+4' (pen)

4/7/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali46%

×Draw28%

Junior26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.95

America de Cali

1.35

Junior

0.95

America de Cali creates 42% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.37

creates per match

1.08

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Junior

1.08

allows per match

America de Cali

0.81

Junior

1.33

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

74%

America de Cali or Junior

72%

Draw or Junior

54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

22%

Junior wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

74%

America de Cali 2+ goals

39%

America de Cali 3+ goals

15%

Junior 1+ goals

61%

Junior 2+ goals

25%

Junior 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

64%

Junior (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Junior away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Junior defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Junior attack 1.08 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more

46%

level

28%

Junior scores more

26%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Barrios

America de Cali · M

8.9

Match Events

13'

D. Mendoza← N. Zalazar

35'

R. Holgado↳ E. Velasco

39'

E. Valencia

45+2'

E. López↳ C. Barrios

46'

Y. Garcés← R. Holgado

49'

D. A. Mendoza Benitez

62'

J. Bocanegra← D. Mendoza

62'

S. Rodríguez← R. Hinojosa

62'

C. Cantillo← B. Castrillón

68'

Ó. Hernández← J. Palacios

72'

D. Meriño← Y. Moreno

74'

H. E. Martinez Yepez

76'

D. Bocanegra

77'

C. Barrios↳ Y. Garcés

79'

M. Barrios← E. Valencia

79'

E. Cardona← E. López

84'

D. Merino

85'

A. Zapata← J. Quiñónes

90+4'

M. PérezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaJunior

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots7

3Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots7

6On Target4

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

352Total Passes405

291Accurate Passes338

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0