America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin

America de Cali

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente Medellin

11/13/2023

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 185+ matches

America de Cali48%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.96

America de Cali

1.42

Independiente Medellin

0.96

America de Cali creates 48% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 185 away

1.49

creates per match

1.16

0.77

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Independiente Medellin

1.16

allows per match

America de Cali

0.77

Independiente Medellin

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

75%

America de Cali or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

52%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

23%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

41%

America de Cali 3+ goals

17%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

62%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

25%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

65%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

America de Cali scores more

48%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

25%

America de Cali at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff