Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
E. Cardona 77'
D. Moreno 88'
E. Cetré 30' (pen), 17' (pen)
8/13/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America de Cali39%
×Draw30%
Independiente Medellin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.10
Independiente Medellin
0.93

America de Cali creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.37
Independiente Medellin
1.04

allows per match

America de Cali
0.81
Independiente Medellin
0.84

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par
Independiente Medellin+0.16scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
70%
America de Cali or Independiente Medellin
70%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
61%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
16%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
67%
America de Cali 2+ goals
30%
America de Cali 3+ goals
10%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
61%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
24%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Independiente Medellin attack 1.04 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

America de Cali scores more
39%
level
30%
Independiente Medellin scores more
30%

America de Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
E. CardonaAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · M
8.0

Match Events

13'
Daniel LondoñoPenalty confirmed
15'
Kevin Andrade
17'
E. CetréPenalty
20'
J. Varela← J. Palacios
21'
José Chunga
23'
Daniel Londoño
27'
Edwin Velasco
28'
Edwin Cardona
30'
E. CetréPenalty
33'
Brayan Léon Muñiz
45+3'
Yulián Gómez
46'
J. Quiñónes← E. Mena
46'
D. Quiñónes← Yulián Gómez
46'
D. Moreno← B. León
55'
Jader QuinonesPenalty cancelled
57'
C. Arrieta← D. Quintero
63'
Joaquin Varela
69'
D. Mosquera← A. Sarmiento
69'
Á. Plata← E. Cetré
77'
D. Torres← J. Alvarado
77'
E. Cardona↳ J. Quiñónes
79'
A. Ramos← M. Mina
88'
D. Moreno↳ Á. Plata
89'
Diego Moreno

Possession

72%America

Shots

13America

Pass accuracy

58%America

Statistics

AmericaIndependiente
Overview
72%Possession28%
13Total Shots4
10Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots4
5On Target3
6Off Target1
2Blocked0
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box1
Passing
72%Possession28%
496Total Passes200
416Accurate Passes124
84%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Primera A: America de Cali 1–3 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat America de Cali 3-1 in Primera A on August 13, 2023.

Goals: E. Cetré (17' pen, 30' pen), E. Cardona (77'), D. Moreno (88').

America de Cali controlled possession (72%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.