America de Cali 2–0 Independiente Medellin

America de Cali

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

C. Barrios 90+2'

A. Ramos 79'

5/29/2023

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America de Cali39%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.93

America de Cali

1.10

Independiente Medellin

0.93

America de Cali creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.37

creates per match

1.04

0.81

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Independiente Medellin

1.04

allows per match

America de Cali

0.81

Independiente Medellin

0.84

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par

Independiente Medellin+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

70%

America de Cali or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

61%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

16%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

67%

America de Cali 2+ goals

30%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

61%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

24%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

56%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Independiente Medellin attack 1.04 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

America de Cali scores more

39%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

30%

America de Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

D. Quintero

America de Cali · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

34'

43'

46'

47'

56'

A. Ricaurte← D. Torres

56'

J. Arizala← D. Quiñónes

56'

L. Pons← D. Cambindo

61'

Andrés Cadavid

62'

A. Ramos← A. Sarmiento

73'

Andrés Cadavid

73'

Andrés Cadavid

74'

L. Sánchez← L. Mosquera

76'

J. Palacios← D. Loaiza

79'

A. Ramos↳ L. Sánchez

84'

Jonathan Marulanda

87'

Jaime Alvarado

88'

G. Carvajal← D. Quintero

90+2'

C. Barrios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaIndependiente

Overview

37%Possession63%

23Total Shots9

4Corners5

7Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots9

8On Target4

7Off Target2

8Blocked3

15Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

295Total Passes518

231Accurate Passes463

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2