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America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

America de Cali
America de Cali
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
L. Angulo 120+5' (pen)
A. Ramos 63'
C. Sierra 9'
D. Loaiza 120+8' (pen)
A. Arregui 120+4' (pen)
A. Cadavid 120+2' (pen)
L. Pons 24'
3/17/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America de Cali43%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.39
Independiente Medellin
1.12

America de Cali creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.00
Independiente Medellin
1.44

allows per match

America de Cali
0.80
Independiente Medellin
1.78

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
70%
America de Cali or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
57%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
20%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
75%
America de Cali 2+ goals
40%
America de Cali 3+ goals
16%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
67%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
31%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
59%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + America de Cali defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

America de Cali scores more
43%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
30%

America de Cali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. RamosAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
C. Sierra
24'
L. Pons↳ A. Arregui
45+4'
Andrés Mosquera
45+2'
Germán Gutiérrez
45+5'
D. Cambindo← L. Pons
46'
J. Micolta← E. Moreno
46'
E. Acevedo← J. García
56'
Jorge Segura
62'
A. Quintana← D. Quiñónes
62'
L. Angulo← C. Sierra
63'
D. Hernández← Iago Falqué
63'
A. Ramos↳ E. Mosquera
67'
F. Pardo← J. Arboleda
67'
J. Hernández← V. Hernández
73'
J. Méndez← J. Pineda
120+1'
A. QuintanaMissed penalty
120+2'
A. CadavidPenalty
120+3'
D. HernándezMissed penalty
120+4'
A. ArreguiPenalty
120+5'
L. AnguloPenalty
120+6'
J. HernándezMissed penalty
120+7'
E. MosqueraMissed penalty
120+8'
D. LoaizaPenalty

Possession

62%America

Shots

19America

Pass accuracy

55%America

Statistics

AmericaIndependiente
Overview
62%Possession38%
19Total Shots19
7Corners5
12Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots19
9On Target6
6Off Target7
4Blocked6
8Inside Box9
11Outside Box10
Passing
62%Possession38%
434Total Passes258
351Accurate Passes170
81%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

America de Cali beat Independiente Medellin 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 17, 2022.

Goals: C. Sierra (9'), L. Pons (24'), A. Ramos (63'), A. Cadavid (120+2' pen), A. Arregui (120+4' pen), L. Angulo (120+5' pen), D. Loaiza (120+8' pen).

America de Cali controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.