America de Cali 2–0 Independiente Medellin

America de Cali

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

J. Segovia 87'

Y. Cabrera 67'

2/15/2020

Primera A · Round 5Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

America de Cali37%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.98

America de Cali

1.06

Independiente Medellin

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.37

creates per match

1.12

0.83

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Independiente Medellin

1.12

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Independiente Medellin

0.76

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Independiente Medellin+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

67%

America de Cali or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

63%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

15%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

65%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

9%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

62%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Independiente Medellin attack 1.12 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

America de Cali scores more

37%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

33%

America de Cali at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Segovia

America de Cali · D

7.8

Match Events

18'

Yulian Gomez

45'

Adrian Arregui

64'

F. Jaramillo← L. Paz

66'

M. Balanta← L. Castro

67'

Y. Cabrera

77'

A. Rodríguez← J. Reina

78'

82'

85'

85'

87'

90'

90'

90+3'

S. Moreno← Y. Cabrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaIndependiente

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots7

8Corners4

11Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots7

7On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

313Total Passes313

243Accurate Passes228

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls20

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1