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America de Cali vs Cucuta — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
Preview
01:00
Cucuta
Cucuta
10/24/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 16
55%
America de Cali
model favours
55%25%20%

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

America de Cali55%
×Draw25%
Cucuta20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.60
Cucuta
0.85

America de Cali creates 88% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 43 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Cucuta
0.95

allows per match

America de Cali
0.76
Cucuta
1.72

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Cucuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
80%
America de Cali or Cucuta
75%
Draw or Cucuta
45%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
29%
Cucuta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
80%
America de Cali 2+ goals
47%
America de Cali 3+ goals
22%
Cucuta 1+ goals
57%
Cucuta 2+ goals
21%
Cucuta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
73%
Cucuta (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 189 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Cucuta defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cucuta attack 0.95 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

America de Cali scores more
55%
level
25%
Cucuta scores more
20%

America de Cali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
America de Cali
Defensively solid
Cucuta
Balanced
52%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy77%
13.9ShotsBiggest gap9.1
1.19xG0.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
America de CaliCucuta

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
America de Cali
0
Draws
2
Cucuta
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 25%
0–23–01–32–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
LWWDD
Cucuta
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: America de Cali host Cucuta

October 24, 2026: America de Cali take on Cucuta in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.