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America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
Preview
23:25
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
9/23/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12
Big match
49%
America de Cali
model favours
49%27%24%

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

America de Cali49%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.40
Águilas Doradas
0.88

America de Cali creates 59% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 168 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Águilas Doradas
0.98

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Águilas Doradas
1.31

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
76%
America de Cali or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
51%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
24%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
75%
America de Cali 2+ goals
41%
America de Cali 3+ goals
17%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
59%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
22%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
67%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 189 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Águilas Doradas attack 0.98 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

America de Cali scores more
49%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
24%

America de Cali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Águilas Doradas win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — America de Cali play Attack-heavy, Águilas Doradas Defensively solid
  • America de Cali sit 3, Águilas Doradas 16 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
America de Cali
Attack-heavy
Águilas Doradas
Defensively solid
52%Possession49%
81%Pass accuracy77%
14.9ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.36xG1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
America de CaliÁguilas Doradas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
America de Cali
2
Draws
3
Águilas Doradas
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–02–11–02–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
LWWDD
Doradas
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

America de Cali face Águilas Doradas (Primera A)

Primera A returns with America de Cali hosting Águilas Doradas. Match starts September 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.