America de Cali 1–3 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Águilas Doradas

4/12/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

America de Cali49%

×Draw27%

Águilas Doradas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.87

America de Cali

1.40

Águilas Doradas

0.87

America de Cali creates 61% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 170 away

1.49

creates per match

0.97

0.77

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

America de Cali

0.77

Águilas Doradas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

77%

America de Cali or Águilas Doradas

73%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

51%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

24%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

75%

America de Cali 2+ goals

41%

America de Cali 3+ goals

17%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

58%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

22%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

68%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

America de Cali scores more

49%

level

27%

Águilas Doradas scores more

23%

America de Cali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff