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Ambrosiana vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
PST
13:30
Villafranca
Villafranca
3/22/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 32Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ambrosiana48%
×Draw24%
Villafranca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.72
Villafranca
1.25

Ambrosiana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
72%
Ambrosiana or Villafranca
76%
Draw or Villafranca
52%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
26%
Villafranca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
82%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
51%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
25%
Villafranca 1+ goals
71%
Villafranca 2+ goals
36%
Villafranca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
63%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.72

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
48%
level
24%
Villafranca scores more
28%

Ambrosiana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ambrosiana face Villafranca (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Ambrosiana hosting Villafranca. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ambrosiana host Villafranca at Stadio Montindon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.