Amazulu 1–0 Moroka Swallows: Result & Stats

Amazulu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moroka Swallows

6/2/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Jonsson Kings Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Amazulu41%

×Draw32%

Moroka Swallows27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazuluExpected goals in this matchMoroka Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.81

Amazulu

1.08

Moroka Swallows

0.81

Amazulu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 62 away

1.09

creates per match

0.74

0.89

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Amazulu

1.09

Moroka Swallows

0.74

allows per match

Amazulu

0.89

Moroka Swallows

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Moroka Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw

73%

Amazulu or Moroka Swallows

68%

Draw or Moroka Swallows

59%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+

17%

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals

66%

Amazulu 2+ goals

29%

Amazulu 3+ goals

10%

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

56%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

19%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)

61%

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amazulu scores more

41%

level

32%

Moroka Swallows scores more

27%

Amazulu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff