Amarante 2–1 Trofense: Result & Stats

Amarante

FT

2 – 1

Trofense

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Amarante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Amarante70%

×Draw18%

Trofense11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmaranteExpected goals in this matchTrofense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.75

Amarante

2.21

Trofense

0.75

Amarante creates 195% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Amarante

2.75

Trofense

1.00

allows per match

Amarante

0.50

Trofense

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amarante+0.00on par

Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amarante ↓

Trofense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Amarante or draw

89%

Amarante or Trofense

82%

Draw or Trofense

30%

Winning margin

Amarante wins by 2+

46%

Trofense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Amarante 1+ goals

89%

Amarante 2+ goals

65%

Amarante 3+ goals

38%

Trofense 1+ goals

53%

Trofense 2+ goals

17%

Trofense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Amarante (draw refunded)

86%

Trofense (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amarante at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Trofense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amarante attack 2.75 + Trofense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Trofense attack 1.00 + Amarante defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Amarante scores more

70%

level

18%

Trofense scores more

11%

Amarante at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff