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Always Ready vs San José — Primera División 2019

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
San José
San José
2/3/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal El Alto (El Alto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Always Ready70%
×Draw17%
San José13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.49
San José
0.98

Always Ready creates 154% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 54 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
San José
1.06

allows per match

Always Ready
0.89
San José
2.39

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
87%
Always Ready or San José
83%
Draw or San José
30%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
48%
San José wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
92%
Always Ready 2+ goals
71%
Always Ready 3+ goals
45%
San José 1+ goals
62%
San José 2+ goals
26%
San José 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
84%
San José (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.49

San José attack 1.06 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Always Ready scores more
70%
level
17%
San José scores more
13%

Always Ready at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Always Ready vs San José

Always Ready and San José drew 3-3 in Primera División on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto (El Alto).