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Always Ready vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — Primera División 2026

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
3/9/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Always Ready65%
×Draw19%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.24
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.01

Always Ready creates 122% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 40 away

creates per match

Always Ready
2.58
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.13

allows per match

Always Ready
0.89
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.90

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Gualberto Villarroel SJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
84%
Always Ready or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
81%
Draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ
35%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
42%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
89%
Always Ready 2+ goals
65%
Always Ready 3+ goals
38%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
64%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
27%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
80%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.89 · 129 matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 2.58 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.24

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 1.13 + Always Ready defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Always Ready scores more
65%
level
19%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
16%

Always Ready at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Always Ready 1–1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Always Ready and Gualberto Villarroel SJ drew 1-1 in Primera División on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.