Alvarado 1–1 Rivadavia Lincoln: Result & Stats

Alvarado

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rivadavia Lincoln

5/17/2013

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 3 - FinalsEstadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alvarado73%

×Draw18%

Rivadavia Lincoln9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvaradoExpected goals in this matchRivadavia Lincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.61

Alvarado

2.15

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.61

Alvarado creates 252% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

0.63

0.59

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Alvarado

1.67

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.63

allows per match

Alvarado

0.59

Rivadavia Lincoln

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alvarado+0.00on par

Rivadavia Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alvarado ↓

Rivadavia Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alvarado or draw

91%

Alvarado or Rivadavia Lincoln

82%

Draw or Rivadavia Lincoln

27%

Winning margin

Alvarado wins by 2+

48%

Rivadavia Lincoln wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Alvarado 1+ goals

88%

Alvarado 2+ goals

63%

Alvarado 3+ goals

36%

Rivadavia Lincoln 1+ goals

46%

Rivadavia Lincoln 2+ goals

13%

Rivadavia Lincoln 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Alvarado (draw refunded)

89%

Rivadavia Lincoln (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alvarado at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Rivadavia Lincoln away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alvarado attack 1.67 + Rivadavia Lincoln defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

Rivadavia Lincoln attack 0.63 + Alvarado defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Alvarado scores more

73%

level

18%

Rivadavia Lincoln scores more

9%

Alvarado at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Alvarado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff