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Aluminij vs Celje — 1. SNL 2026

Aluminij
Aluminij
Preview
16:00
Celje
Celje
7/25/20261. SNL1. SNL · Round 2Sportni park Aluminij
Big match
48%
Celje
model favours
27%25%48%

Aluminij score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Aluminij27%
×Draw25%
Celje48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
1.16
Celje
1.61

Celje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.21
Celje
1.69

allows per match

Aluminij
1.53
Celje
1.10

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
52%
Aluminij or Celje
75%
Draw or Celje
73%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
11%
Celje wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
69%
Aluminij 2+ goals
32%
Aluminij 3+ goals
11%
Celje 1+ goals
80%
Celje 2+ goals
48%
Celje 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
37%
Celje (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

Celje away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.21 + Celje defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Celje attack 1.69 + Aluminij defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aluminij scores more
27%
level
25%
Celje scores more
48%

Celje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Celje are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both teams score in 74% of Celje’s matches
  • Celje score first in only 35% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.3 goals
  • 65% of Celje’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Aluminij
DLDL
Celje
DDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aluminij face Celje (1. SNL)

1. SNL returns with Aluminij hosting Celje. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aluminij host Celje at Sportni park Aluminij.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.